No Representation, Just Tariffs

The customs tariffs imposed by the USA on coffee-producing countries—are they truly a tragedy? Maybe not — but they reveal how fragile the system we’re upholding really is. A system of sham representation.

Liberation Day fell on April 2nd. The United States implemented tariffs on coffee imports from key coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, Colombia, and Indonesia, among others. Then, the US president suspended the full rates for 90 days — but still imposed a 10% tariff on all goods, including coffee and started a “tariff war” with China, from which he did not emerge unscathed. Since even economic experts find it difficult to understand these changes, it is not surprising that we, coffee lovers, do not know exactly what is going on, but we have started to feel it in our wallets.

For years, coffee had been exempt from such tariffs, but this shift in policy has raised alarms in the industry. The public is rather inconsistent in its assessments of who and what Donald Trump is liberating. What is certain is that there is panic in the global markets, as clearly shown by the record falls in stock market openings on Monday. In the unstable politics of one of the world's superpowers, it is difficult to predict anything anymore. Coffee market commentators also have a hard time. The C-price “crisis,” the customs “war” versus the meme-like imposition of tariffs on a desert island full of penguins. The world now feels like a kaleidoscope—or a distorting mirror—where truth, policy, and perception shift with every turn.

The United States is one of the world's leading coffee importers. In 2023, the United States imported coffee worth around 8.2 billion USD, which accounted for around 18.7% of the world's coffee imports. At the same time, the country is responsible for around 17% of the world's coffee consumption (23.3% of consumption in coffee-importing countries).

The introduction of tariffs on coffee, which had been exempt from them for many years, is a significant move. It feels either ill-considered—or part of a plan so opaque that only a small circle in the White House truly understands it. Perhaps it is just a side effect, of which we could point out many, of this country's new “great” policy of neo-isolation? I don’t know—and I doubt even the U.S. president himself fully does.

The current situation sharpens the picture of our vulnerability to politicians' decisions. I remember how, a few years ago, during trade fairs in Warsaw and other cities, I gave lectures on the main stakeholders and shareholders of the coffee market. I mentioned politicians among them, explaining historical decisions made by decision-makers. US presidents have always led the way here. Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), during the Great Depression, played a role in stabilizing the coffee industry. The famous International Coffee Agreement (ICA) was signed by John F. Kennedy. Richard Nixon's Cold War policies stabilized coffee production in South America. Ronald Reagan withdrew support for the ICA, which was one of the reasons for its collapse in 1989 (already during Bush senior's term). Barack Obama's policies supported the growing importance of sustainability in our industry. In most cases, it hasn’t been sudden decisions that shape the coffee market, but slow-moving processes—or decisions shaped by those processes.

No one escapes the system? Raise your voice, or pay the price in silence.

Hence our commotion now. Because we can pinpoint this specific decision to introduce new customs tariffs. And what can we do about it? Like US coffee producers and coffee shop owners, we go with the flow and can only see the sense or lack thereof in the government's decision. We can already see, or are about to see, that this is an expensive decision for us and consumers. Prices are going up. Will sipping a latte during the next protest cost a few dollars more?

Of course, manufacturers from the countries of origin will not find it easy to find replacements for their US customers, who may limit their purchases with rising costs, rising domestic prices, and declining consumption (which seems to be one of the more obvious results of this decision, if it is maintained at all).

Let’s emphasize—if this decision is upheld. NGOs such as the National Coffee Association have already lobbied the White House to exclude coffee from the tariff changes. Will anyone listen to them? I doubt it, as they already asked for this a month ago in the context of tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and our industry was not made an exception on Liberation Day. Did anyone even expect us to be the exception, because Trump voters also like to drink low-priced coffee?

This also shows how much we lack—as a global interest group—collective leadership and clout with industry interests. We don't have an organization that can show the strength of voice of 100 million people connected to coffee. We have ostensible representations, organizations with a social media reach that the US president doesn't follow.

Maybe it’s time we followed the example of others and created our own “coffee FIFA” — a global authority that will stand up for the 100 million people whose lives revolve around coffee, and lobbying for our collective interest with the same precision and cold-blooded focus that Gianni Infantino brings to securing billions for the next World Cup in the U.S.

But will this decision on new U.S. tariffs really turn out to be as bad for us as most people assume today? Time will tell — but as long as we stay voiceless, I doubt it will end well.

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